Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of Hepatitis A with Combined Vaccination and Sanitation Mitigation
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Date
2023-02-13
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
HINDAWI
Abstract
A mathematical model for the Hepatitis A Virus (HAV) epidemiology with dual transmission mechanisms is developed and
presented. The model considers vaccination and sanitation as mitigation strategies. The effective reproductive number was
derived and employed to study the stability of the model. Using Routh’s stability criteria, the local stability of a disease-free
equilibrium was determined, whereas the global stability of the endemic equilibrium was attained through a suitable Lyapunov
function. Furthermore, bifurcation analysis is carried out using the centre manifold theory to ascertain its nature and
implication for disease control. It was revealed that the model exhibits a forward bifurcation indicating the possibility of
disease eradication when the effective reproduction number is kept below unity. Numerical results indicate that infection rates
decrease quantitatively when at least one control measure is effectively implemented. It was deduced that combining
vaccination and sanitation yields even fewer cases, making it the best alternative for eliminating Hepatitis A (HA) infection
from the community. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to ascertain the parameters of the strong influence that could
significantly affect the system. It was revealed that constant recruitment and vaccination coverage were the most critical
parameters affecting the system. In addition, the study found that direct transmission plays an essential role in the occurrence
of HA infection. In contrast, indirect transmission contributes marginally but significantly to the prevalence of HA infection.